Nature and selected essays cliff notes
Stoicism makes you desire the challenge of a calamity. I would go through the mental exercise of assuming every morning that the worst possible thing had actually happened— the rest of the day would be a bonus. An intelligent life is all about such emotional positioning to eliminate the sting of harm, which as we saw is done by mentally writing off belongings so one does not feel any pain from losses.
The volatility of the world no longer affects you negatively. The barbell businessman-scholar situation was ideal; after three or four in the afternoon, when I left the office, my day job ceased to exist until the next day and I was completely free to pursue what I found most valuable and interesting.
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Professions can be serial: something very safe, then something speculative. A friend of mine built himself a very secure profession as a book editor, in which he was known to be very good. Then, after a decade or so, he left completely for something speculative and highly risky. This is a true barbell in every sense of the word: he can fall back on his previous profession should the speculation fail, or fail to bring the expected satisfaction. The worst side effect of wealth is the social associations it forces on its victims, as people with big houses tend to end up socializing with other people with big houses.
Beyond a certain level of opulence and independence, gents tend to be less and less personable and their conversation less and less interesting. Authors, artists, and even philosophers are much better off having a very small number of fanatics behind them than a large number of people who appreciate their work. Further, it helps when supporters are both enthusiastic and influential. But he had a small number of cultlike followers, and some, such as Bertrand Russell and J.
Keynes, were massively influential. Beyond books, consider this simple heuristic: your work and ideas, whether in politics, the arts, or other domains, are antifragile if, instead of having one hundred percent of the people finding your mission acceptable or mildly commendable, you are better off having a high percentage of people disliking you and your message even intensely , combined with a low percentage of extremely loyal and enthusiastic supporters.
Consider two types of knowledge. It is a way of doing things that we cannot really express in clear and direct language— it is sometimes called apophatic— but that we do nevertheless, and do well. The error of naive rationalism leads to overestimating the role and necessity of the second type, academic knowledge, in human affairs— and degrading the uncodifiable, more complex, intuitive, or experience-based type.
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There is no proof against the statement that the role such explainable knowledge plays in life is so minor that it is not even funny. We are very likely to believe that skills and ideas that we actually acquired by antifragile doing, or that came naturally to us from our innate biological instinct , came from books, ideas, and reasoning. We get blinded by it; there may even be something in our brains that makes us suckers for the point. Evolution is not a competition between ideas, but between humans and systems based on such ideas. An idea does not survive because it is better than the competition, but rather because the person who holds it has survived!
Accordingly, wisdom you learn from your grandmother should be vastly superior empirically, hence scientifically to what you get from a class in business school and, of course, considerably cheaper. My sadness is that we have been moving farther and farther away from grandmothers. If you face n options, invest in all of them in equal amounts.
Because in Extremistan, it is more important to be in something in a small amount than to miss it. The difference between humans and animals lies in the ability to collaborate, engage in business, let ideas, pardon the expression, copulate. Collaboration has explosive upside, what is mathematically called a superadditive function, i. Crucially, this is an argument for unpredictability and Black Swan effects: since you cannot forecast collaborations and cannot direct them, you cannot see where the world is going.
All you can do is create an environment that facilitates these collaborations, and lay the foundation for prosperity. Corporations are in love with the idea of the strategic plan. They need to pay to figure out where they are going.
Yet there is no evidence that strategic planning works— we even seem to have evidence against it. A management scholar, William Starbuck, has published a few papers debunking the effectiveness of planning— it makes the corporation option-blind, as it gets locked into a non-opportunistic course of action. It is simply more robust to do so; iv Make sure you are barbelled, whatever that means in your business.
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Only the autodidacts are free. And not just in school matters— those who decommoditize, detouristify their lives. Sports try to put randomness in a box like the ones sold in aisle six next to canned tuna— a form of alienation. And if I asked someone riding a bicycle just fine to give me the theory behind his bicycle riding, he would fall from it.
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By bullying and questioning people you confuse them and hurt them. It is because you make people feel stupid for blindly following habits, instincts, and traditions. You may be occasionally right. And you have no answer; you have no answer to offer them. Things are too complicated to be expressed in words; by doing so, you kill humans. Or people— as with the green lumber— may be focusing on the right things but we are not good enough to figure it out intellectually.
The payoff, what happens to you the benefits or harm from it , is always the most important thing, not the event itself. Philosophers talk about truth and falsehood.
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People in life talk about payoff, exposure, and consequences risks and rewards , hence fragility and antifragility. And sometimes philosophers and thinkers and those who study conflate Truth with risks and rewards. You decide principally based on fragility, not probability. If I tell you that some result is true with 95 percent confidence level, you would be quite satisfied. But what if I told you that the plane was safe with 95 percent confidence level? Even 99 percent confidence level would not do, as a 1 percent probability of a crash would be quite a bit alarming today commercial planes operate with less than one in several hundred thousand probabilities of crashing, and the ratio is improving, as we saw that every error leads to the improvement of overall safety.
There are many things without words, matters that we know and can act on but cannot describe directly, cannot capture in human language or within the narrow human concepts that are available to us. Almost anything around us of significance is hard to grasp linguistically— and in fact the more powerful, the more incomplete our linguistic grasp.
A wonderfully simple heuristic: charlatans are recognizable in that they will give you positive advice, and only positive advice, exploiting our gullibility and sucker-proneness for recipes that hit you in a flash as just obvious, then evaporate later as you forget them. Almost everything contemporary has winner-take-all effects, which includes sources of harm and benefits. Likewise when I am told that someone has three hundred academic papers and twenty-two honorary doctorates, but no other single compelling contribution or main idea behind it, I avoid him like the bubonic plague.
In this chapter we use the notion of fragility as a central driver of prediction. Recall the foundational asymmetry: the antifragile benefits from volatility and disorder, the fragile is harmed. Well, time is the same as disorder. The prime error is as follows. When asked to imagine the future, we have the tendency to take the present as a baseline, then produce a speculative destiny by adding new technologies and products to it and what sort of makes sense, given an interpolation of past developments.
We also represent society according to our utopia of the moment, largely driven by our wishes— except for a few people called doomsayers, the future will be largely inhabited by our desires. I received an interesting letter from Paul Doolan from Zurich, who was wondering how we could teach children skills for the twenty-first century since we do not know which skills will be needed in the twenty-first century— he figured out an elegant application of the large problem that Karl Popper called the error of historicism. Effectively my answer would be to make them read the classics.
The future is in the past.
http://demo.trailblazer.outdoorsy.co/zithromax-et-hydroxychloroquine-capsules.php Actually there is an Arabic proverb to that effect: he who does not have a past has no future. Another mental bias causing the overhyping of technology comes from the fact that we notice change, not statics. The classic example, discovered by the psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky, applies to wealth. The pair developed the idea that our brains like minimal effort and get trapped that way, and they pioneered a tradition of cataloging and mapping human biases with respect to perception of random outcomes and decision making under uncertainty. It requires less memory storage.